Mortgage Rate Forecast Going Into The First Quarter of 2012

Mortgage Rate Outlook Panel

Our panel of mortgage experts share their views on Canadian mortgage rate trends each month by answering this question: What is your outlook for Canadian mortgage rates over the next 30-45 days?
View this month's answers below.

December 2011

Mark Kocaurek
Senior Vice President, ING Direct
Dr. Ian Lee
Director at Carleton University
Dan Eisner
President, True North Mortgage
Stella Cellucci
Mortgage Agent, Centum Mortgage Professionals
Panel Consensus
Our panel's final verdict for this month's fixed, and variable mortgage rates.


Can fixed mortgage rates get any lower? This month our panel members aren't ruling out a decrease to fixed rates in the short term. At the same time, they feel quite strongly that variable mortgage rates will stay at current levels well into 2012.

Fixed Rates: Down

With no quick fix on the horizon for the European debt crisis, the global economic outlook continues to be pessimistic causing downward pressure on longer term bond yields. Couple this with decreased demand for home loans during the busy holiday season, and it is likely that fixed mortgage rates will stay low or even drop further over the next 30-45 days.

Variable Rates: Unchanged

Recent GDP numbers were surprisingly strong, inflation is near the target range, and a global economic meltdown could be on our door step. The last thing Governor Mark Carney wants to do is shock consumers during the busy holiday buying season with news of an interest rate increase. As a result, our panel members agree that the Bank of Canada will hold rates steady at their next meeting.


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